Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.164680 2.282672 2.409723 2.557856 2.727379 2.917314 3.149178
2025-06-22 1.985314 2.128166 2.287895 2.482455 2.717084 2.996730 3.365196
2025-06-29 1.894260 2.055846 2.241836 2.476456 2.772113 3.144427 3.672252
2025-07-06 1.800523 1.970075 2.169042 2.426140 2.760437 3.199071 3.858276
2025-07-13 1.763675 1.947438 2.167861 2.460774 2.856292 3.402826 4.291288
2025-07-20 1.746476 1.946051 2.190796 2.525630 2.996535 3.686688 4.923038
2025-07-27 1.705624 1.912147 2.169242 2.528154 3.047901 3.844225 5.389135
2025-08-03 1.669994 1.882442 2.150520 2.531789 3.099389 4.007935 5.926758
2025-08-10 1.611480 1.820761 2.086399 2.467299 3.041414 3.979141 6.043740
2025-08-17 1.576314 1.787618 2.058319 2.451569 3.056296 4.077692 6.496504
2025-08-24 1.544950 1.758031 2.033368 2.438278 3.072995 4.181118 7.016042
2025-08-31 1.516791 1.731488 2.011159 2.427247 3.091682 4.290566 7.623107
2025-09-07 1.499487 1.719551 2.009566 2.448430 3.168890 4.537140 8.927159
2025-09-14 1.452878 1.667088 1.949818 2.378614 3.085153 4.436432 8.865476
2025-09-21 1.430130 1.645828 1.932683 2.372648 3.111322 4.576427 9.980336
2025-09-28 1.395763 1.607944 1.890875 2.326557 3.062994 4.543372 10.266980
2025-10-05 1.387984 1.605624 1.898967 2.358053 3.155948 4.854081 13.110739
2025-10-12 1.388833 1.614891 1.923693 2.417030 3.306308 5.356014 20.916942
2025-10-19 1.372955 1.600603 1.913713 2.419305 3.348543 5.588898 30.618272
2025-10-26 1.358202 1.587405 1.904759 2.422600 3.392985 5.844857 61.621156
2025-11-02 1.326828 1.550370 1.859692 2.363930 3.307086 5.679352 54.578031
2025-11-09 1.309000 1.531884 1.841547 2.349594 3.311391 5.804389 152.488514
2025-11-16 1.292562 1.514957 1.825193 2.337474 3.319231 5.945241 NaN